JCSDA Strategic Plan

Strategic Plan

Strategic Plan for the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, FY 2009-2013 (PDF, 1.5MB)

Message from the Director

Weather continues to have a profound impact on our society; human lives, and property—what's more, the activity and profitability of a wide range of economic sectors depend on it. According to estimates published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, around 20 percent—$2.75 trillion—of the overall U.S. economy is considered "weather- sensitive."

Being sensitive to weather is one thing, being sensitive to weather forecasts is something else. What are the real stakes? Let's assume that half of the weather-sensitive activities are also what one might call forecast-sensitive—they represent areas where a decision based on weather forecast input will have an economic impact. This means that a $1.4 trillion slice of the national economy is depending on weather forecasting for guidance. Let's further speculate that the maximum benefit that could potentially be realized from forecasting amounts to a relatively modest 5 percent of this $1.4 trillion total. In other words, the difference between having no advance information whatsoever and having the best possible forecasts amounts to slightly more than one half of 1 percent of the overall economy, or just over $70 billion annually. The extreme theoretical limit of predictability of the weather is about two weeks. Now, let's try to assess "value by range" by way of a very simple mathematical model, saying that the economic benefit is proportional to the useful range of the forecast: No forecasting—zero useful range—provides no benefit, whereas useful forecast skills at the maximum range of two weeks provide the maximum benefit of $70 billion annually. This model says that the overall value to the U.S. economy of weather forecasting is an astonishing $200 million per year for each hour of useful forecast range!

It is, therefore, not surprising that the nation continues to invest substantial amounts in its weather forecast capabilities, including the satellites that are used to gather the necessary observations. However, cutting-edge scientific expertise and computing power are required to support technological advances, and the necessary resources are dispersed across several federal agencies. The Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation plays a key role in bringing together expertise from NASA, NOAA, and the Department of Defense to achieve the common goals of transitioning satellite data and research in satellite data assimilation into operational use. The Joint Center is not just about weather and weather prediction. Many of the same data and many of the same methods that have proven to be successful for weather forecasting are now being used for a wide range of other environmental applications, such as air quality and aerosol forecasting, ocean data assimilation, and climate analysis and prediction. As the nation is preparing to take the next steps in space-based observing capabilities with the launch of the NPOESS and GOES-R programs, as well as new NASA research missions, the Joint Center is ready to help ensure that the return on the investment is maximized in terms of improved environmental analysis and prediction capabilities.

Lars Peter Riishojgaard
Director, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation